Home' MHD Supply Chain Solutions : MHD Mar-Apl 2017 Contents THE report examines the dynamics of
each logistics segment. Key elements of the
• The logistics industry has undergone
a transformation in terms of the major
logistics service providers that have come to
dominate the market.
• The report examines the dynamics of
each logistics segment that has caused the
industry to transform.
• For the first time, this report includes
Ti’s unique total logistics market sizing,
segmentation by logistics market from top to
bottom, and forecast growth to 2020.
• Major developments, such as the ‘Internet
of Things’, ‘autonomous vehicles’ and ‘3D
printing’ are all assessed in detail.
Ti has sized the total logistics market
and is offering a breakdown of the industry
by logistics market, as well as forecasts to
2020. Ti’s CEO Professor John Manners-Bell
explained: “The global logistics industry is
vast, both in terms of market size and the
huge numbers of people employed in the
sector. It is therefore surprising that its role
in the development of the global economy is
“W ithout the inexpensive and reliable
transport of freight, manufacturers would
not be able to tap into the cheap labour
resources based in remote locations
throughout the world. Nor would retailers
be able to provide ever-increasing levels of
service to their customers, ensuring shelves
are always stocked whilst inventory is kept to
This report examines
all the pressures that have
led to the emergence
of today’s vibrant global
logistics industry – from
both the ‘demand’ (i.e.
manufacturing and retailing)
and the ‘supply’ (i.e. logistics
provider) sides’ perspective.
In addition to the roles of
the contract logistics and
freight forwarding sectors, it
also examines the dynamics
of the express parcels,
container shipping, air cargo, road freight and
Mr Manners-Bell continued: “What is
clear is that after a turbulent period of
transformation, there is no sign that change
in the logistics industry is slowing down. A
powerful mix of demand and supply side
factors means that further re-structuring is
possible, if not probable.”
A key statistic from the report is that global
economic growth in 2016 was just 2.3%
according to World Bank.
The outlook for logistics
2016 has been the weakest year for the global
economy since the Great Recession of 2008-09.
That is the clear and simple message of the World
Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects
report. Global economic growth was just 2.3%
in 2016, down from 2.7% in 2015. Weak US
performance and recessions in large commodity-
dependent economies curtailed growth. In
emerging markets, the disparity between
growth of commodity exporting nations
compared to importing nations was vast.
(See Figure 1.)
Looking ahead, some of the World
Bank’s key expectations for 2017 are:
• Global growth is projected to
rise from 2.3% in 2016 to 2.7% in
2017. However, there is substantial
uncertainly around this baseline figure.
The World Bank asserts there is a
50% chance that actual growth will be
between 2.0% and 3.2%.
• Political uncer tainty (largely
associated with Brexit and Donald
Trump) has been identified as a key
risk that could curtail growth in 2017.
• On the other hand, possible fiscal stimulus,
especially in the US, represents a substantial
upside risk to the outlook.
• Rising oil prices are expected to help boost
three leading commodity exporters – Brazil,
Russia and Nigeria – from recession in 2017.
However, metals and agriculture commodity
prices overall are expected to remain more
or less flat to 2019.
• World trade volume growth was just 2.5%
in 2016. It is expected to increase to 3.6%
in 2017. Although new trade restrictions
reached a post-crisis high in 2016,
encouragingly, most emerging markets “still
have a large untapped potential to move up
the value chain, by shifting to more complex
and higher domestic value-added products”.
Main take-outs regarding the logistics
industry are first, that unsurprisingly, the
expectation of slightly higher economic growth
in 2017 is good news, but don’t count in any
way on the global economy to deliver a more
favourable environment in 2017 than in 2016,
as more uncertainty surrounds these forecasts
than in previous years.
Ditto for world trade growth. And finally,
it is quite possible that growth in global
‘supply chain complexity’ has slowed down
significantly over the last five years or so – not
good news for logistics providers, especially
forwarders. (See Figure 2.)
To obtain the full report, visit www.
logistics-2017. Ti has also released the
2017 Global e-Commerce Logistics report,
THE TOTAL LOGISTICS 2017 REPORT BY TRANSPORT INTELLIGENCE (TI)
IS NOW AVAILABLE FROM LOGISTICS EXECUTIVE GROUP
Commodity importers ex. China
Export [billion $]
Figure 1. GDP growth in emerging markets.
Source: World Bank.
Figure 2. Global exports. Source: World Bank,
with data taken from Haugh et al. (2016).
MHD SUPPLY CHAIN SOLUTIONS — MARCH / APRIL 2017
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